From the Bowels of the Millenial Depression: Part I

by Professor Vapor Trail

It was refreshing to read the article by the military chap in one of your November issues. It was about a person who learned that self discipline creates freedom -- it does not inhibit it. He was freed from the trap of modern liberalism known as "radical individualism" which, alas, in the final analysis has created a society where style has been allowed to triumph over substance.

Radical individualism means many things including a repudiation of solid reasoning or the need for evidence to prove a provocatively stated assertion. That's why all kinds of half-baked, New Age "systems" like astrology are given credence all the way to the highest levels of society as with the Reagans who had a personal astrologer. Never mind that, due to the precession of the equinoxes, the Sun is in Aries now in early May, not Taurus. Let us not be confused by the facts (sic).

The shoddy reasoning of radical individualism is now giving us our just desserts -- the beginning of what will prove to be an absolutely intractible decade-long Depression. In the late '90s even rocket scientists were buying stocks with no prospects of earnings for the forseeable future because they belonged to the ur-hip high-tech sector. People have spent like drunken sailors and now total non-corporate private sector debt (the radical individual!!) is more than 101% of Gross Domestic Product -- an alltime record by an astonishing 30%.

The problem with the decline of intellect, of respect for intellect, and for the modesty of restrained, sound thinking is that it propagates into all socioeconomic strata and into our tastes and daily behaviors. Forget about condemning the younger generation -- that is a total copout. My generation, the middle-aged nouveau riche techno-shits with their goddamned gadget worshipry, SUVs, and media intoxication are hardly models for their offspring or the peers of their offspring. Hipness and ostentation are now more desirable than talent, thrift, modesty, and inwardness.

Economies are merely an emergent phenomenon of a culture and, like any emergent phenomenon, are mirrors of the culture. If the culture loses its integrity and sanity, the economy will lose its integrity and sanity. Integrity is largely a result of internal consistency in a person's (or culture's) values. Yet what do we have in the political arena -- Al Gore (a.k.a. Mr. Earth-in-the-Balance) driving an SUV after each stump speech, not an electric car. And although the Bible itself says that no man can worship God and Mammon at the same time, we have the likes of Pat Robertson who is both financially and theologically obsessed at the same time. As the Chinese might say: "I turned in the direction of the four winds and could find no virtue". The current politcal parties simply bow to different demons.

So what's a guy to do? Join a monastery? Give in and go right out and get a Personal Digital Assistant and a webphone? Swallow a jar of Xanax and sleep for a few years? No folks, it is actually possible to live a simple, serene life right in the midst of the chaos. Get joy in NOT buying things. Get the goddamned bone out of your nose, remove the testicle rings, junk the gangsta clothes and, like, LEARN TO PLAY A MUSICAL INSTRUMENT or speak a foreign language!? Throw away those self-help psychobabble books and learn some REAL subjects instead of worshipping cheesy sophists, media celebs, shitty bands, and bad TV.

Yes, it's time to GET REAL because reality, in the form of a really horrid economy will MAKE YOU GET REAL so you might as well "beat it to the punch". Nature, happily, is always self-correcting. Just make sure that you're not the one who is being "corrected". Soon, there will be no more "nanny state" to bail out those who expect the world to respect the fact that they want to take the rest of their lives off from work because they have an existential ass-ache.

Finally, for you pollyannas out there who find this oh-so strident and uber-pessimistic, here are some HARD NUMBERS FOR YOU.

1) Average credit card debt per cardholder -- $8200. In 1990, it was $3100 which was then an alltime record.

2) The effect on the stock markets of a reduction in interest rates from 6.5% to 2.0%: S&P 500 down 28% from its high, Nasdaq down 62% from its high. Stock markets normally soar when interest rates are lowered.

3) Amount of money leaving America annually due to trade imbalances: $360 billion.

4) Credit card defaults so far in 2001: 10% of cardholders -- an alltime record by a huge margin.

5) Estimated loss to the U.S. Economy as a result of the Enron bankruptcy -- $1 trillion. That's not a misprint.

6) Extrapolated unemployment rate on January 1, 2003 at current rate of unemployment increase per month: 11%.

7) Net consumer debt: $11 trillion. Do you REALLY think all those $250,000 home loans are going to get repaid? Try imagining what happens to the banking system if only 10% of them default.

8) Total U.S. private sector debt (corporate and consumer together): $28 trillion or, roughly, nearly three years of GDP.

9) General Motors bond ratings, if lowered again, will be below investment grade after the greatest economic boom in history. What do you think their margins are going to be like with those zero-percent five year loans?

10) California's projected debt for 2002 -- $12 billion. After emergency meetings with allegedly radical budget cutting, the legislature has cut expenditures $2 billion. Did any of these guys do better than a "C" in 6th grade arithmetic?

 

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